You know how it is: you are in the middle of something for which you have a strong instinct, an informed gut-knowing, a professional goose-bump apocalyptic grasparoonies.

And then you do some research:

I wouldn’t say I’m proud of this statistical revelation and knowing already – for all kinds of obvious reasons – but I can confirm there is no definitive grade on this evidence and in my own experience, though some are I believe more definite than others…..